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Dr Willan is an academic biostatistician and clinical trial methodologist, and currently holds the positions
of Professor of Biostatistics in the Dalla Lana
School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, and Professor Emeritus in the Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics at McMaster
University. His contributions to statistical methodology include publications in the areas of cost-effectiveness analysis, value of information methods,
management trials, crossover trials, non-nested regression analysis and bivariate response models. Dr Willan has been particularly instrumental in
developing the field of statistical analysis of cost-effectiveness data with twenty peer-review articles and a book, co-authored with Professor
Andy Briggs, in the Wiley Statistics in Practice series, entitled *Statistical Analysis of Cost-effectiveness Data*. More recently Dr Willan’s research
interest has focused on using value of information methods for the optimal design and analysis of clinical studies, with seventeen peer-reviewed articles
and two book chapters. Dr Willan’s collaborative research has been primarily in clinical trials in obstetrics and paediatrics with numerous high profile trials
published in the *New England Journal of Medicine* and *Lancet*. Previously held positions include Senior Scientist at SickKids Research Institute, Head of Biometry of the Clinical Trials
Program at the National Cancer Institute of Canada and Head of Clinical Trials and Epidemiology for the Cancer Program at Sunnybrook Medical Centre in Toronto.

Dr Willan is currently involved in methodologic research in the areas of health economics and value of information for optimal decision making in health care research and policy.

Dr Willan's current research collaborations include
projects in health economics, pediatric emergency care, surgery, breast
cancer, obstetrical care, supportive cancer care and cardiac devices.

- Eckermann S,
**Willan AR**. Active Lives South Australia health economic analysis: an evidence base for the potential of health promotion strategies supporting physical activity guidelines to reduce public health costs while improving wellbeing.

*Journal Public Health*2021. See Citations - Eckermann S,
**Willan AR**, Okely A.*et al*. Robust cross-country comparison of children meeting 24-HR movement guidelines: an odds solution for binary effect efficiency measures.

*Journal Public Health*2021. See Citations **Willan AR**, Thabane L. Bayesian methods for pilot studies.

*Clinical Trials*2020;**17**(4):414-419. See Citations- Freedman SB, Williamson-UrquhartS, Farion KJ, Gouin S,
**Willan AR***et al*. Multicenter trial of a combination probiotic for children with gastroenteritis.

*New England Journal of Medicine*2018;**379**(21):2015-2026. See Citations - Roth DE, Morris S, Zlotkin SK, Gernand AD, Ahmed T, Shanta SS,
**Willan AR***et al*. Vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy and lactation and infant growth.

*New England Journal of Medicine*2018;**379**(6):535-546. See Citations **Willan AR**. Accounting for treatment by center interaction in sample size determinations and the use of surrogate outcomes in the pessary for the prevention of preterm birth trial: a simulation study.

*BMC Trials*2016;**17**(1):310. See Citations- Chan KKW, Xie F,
**Willan AR**, Gupta M, Pullenayegum E. Underestimation of variance of predicted health utilities derived from multi-attribute utility instruments the use of multiple imputation as a potential solution.

*Medical Decision Making*2017;**37**(3):262-272. See Citations - Chen MH,
**Willan AR**. Value of information methods for assessing a new diagnostic test.

*Statistics in Medicine*2014;**33**(11):1801-1815. See Citations - Abrahamyan L,
**Willan AR**, Beyene J, Mclimont M, Blanchette V, Feldman BM. Using value of information methods when the disease is rare and the treatment is expensive – The example of hemophilia A.

*Journal of General Internal Medicine*2014;**29**(3):767-773. See Citations - Chan KKW,
**Willan AR**, Gupta M, Pullenayegum E. Underestimation of Uncertainties in Health Utilities derived from Mapping Algorithms involving Health Related Quality of Life Measures: Statistical Explanations and Potential Remedies.

*Medical Decision Making*2014;**34**(7):863-872. See Citations **Willan AR**. Bayesian decision theory and the design and analysis of randomized clinical trials. In: van Montfort K, Oud J, and Ghidey W. (Eds.)

*Developments in Statistical Evaluation of Clinical Trials*. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2014. (ISBN 978-3-642-55345-5)**Willan AR**. Bayesian methods for the design, analysis and interpretation of clinical studies. In: Berger VW, Zhang X. (Eds.)

*Important Considerations for Clinical Trial Methodologies*. Future Medicine London, 2013. (eISBN 978-1-909453-31-9)- Chen MH,
**Willan AR**. Determining optimal sample sizes for multistage adaptive randomized clinical trials from an industry perspective using value of information methods.

*Clinical Trials*2013;**10**(1):54–62. See Citations - Hossain A,
**Willan AR**, Beyene J. A flexible nonparametric approach to find candidate genes associated to disease in microarray experiments.

*Journal of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology*2013;**11**(2):1250021 (19 pages). See Citations - Barrett JFR, Hannah ME, Hutton EK,
**Willan AR***et al.*A randomized trial of planned cesarean or vaginal delivery for twin pregnancy.

*New England Journal of Medicine*2013;**369**(14):1295-1305. See Citations - Eckermann S,
**Willan AR**. Optimal global VOI trials: better aligning manufacturer and decision maker interests and enabling feasible risk sharing.

*PharmacoEconomics*2013;**31**(5):393-401. See Citations - Hossain A,
**Willan AR**, Beyene J. An improved method on Wilcoxon rank sum test for gene selection from microarray experiments.

*Communications in Statistics*2013;**42**(7):1563-1577. See Citations **Willan AR**, Goeree R, Boutis K. Value of Information methods for planning and analyzing clinical studies optimize decision making and research planning.

*Journal of Clinical Epidemiology*2012;**65**(8):870-876. See Citations**Willan AR**, Eckermann S. Accounting for between-study variation in incremental net benefit in value of information methodology.

*Health Economics*2012;**21**(10):1183–1195. See Citations**Willan AR**, Eckermann S. Value of information and pricing new health care interventions.

*PharmacoEconomics*2012;**30**(6):447-459. See Citations- Pullenayegum EM,
**Willan AR**. Marginal models for censored longitudinal cost data: appropriate working variance matrices in inverse-probability-weighted GEEs can improve precision.

*The International Journal of Biostatistics*2011;**7**(1), Article 14. See Citations **Willan AR**. Sample size determination for cost-effectiveness trials.

*PharmacoEconomics*2011;**29**(11):933-949. See Citations- Eckermann S,
**Willan AR**. Presenting and summarizing cost and effect evidence to best inform inference and societal decision making when comparing multiple strategies.

*PharmacoEconomics*2011;**29**(7):563-577. See Citations - Eckermann S, Coory M,
**Willan AR**. Consistently estimating risk difference when translating evidence to jurisdiction of interest.

*PharmacoEconomics*2011;**29**(2):87-96. See Citations - Eckermann S, Karnon J,
**Willan AR**. The value of information: Best informing research design and prioritization using current methods.

*PharmacoEconomics*2010;**28**(9):699-709. See Citations **Willan AR**, Eckermann S. Optimal clinical trial design using value of information methods with imperfect implementation.

*Health Economics*2010;**19**(5):549-561. See Citations- Hossain A, Beyene J,
**Willan AR**, Hu P. Approximate Likelihood ratio test for detecting differential expression in microarray data.

*Computational Statistics and Data Analysis*2009;**53**(10):3685-3695. See Citations - Eckermann S, Coory M,
**Willan AR**. Indirect comparison: relative risk fallacies and odds solution.

*Journal of Clinical Epidemiology*2009;**62**(10):1031-1036. See Citations - Eckermann S,
**Willan AR**. Globally optimal trial design for local decision making.

*Health Economics*2009;**18**(2):203-216. See Citations **Willan AR**. Optimal sample size determinations from an industry perspective based on the expected value of information.

*Clinical Trials*2008;**5**(6):587-594. See Citations**Willan AR**, Kowgier ME. Determining optimal sample sizes for multi-stage randomized clinical trials using value of information methods.

*Clinical Trials*2008;**5**(4):289-300. See Citations- Eckermann S,
**Willan AR**. The option value of delay in health technology assessment.

*Medical Decision Making*2008;**28**(3):300-305. See Citations - Eckermann S, Briggs A,
**Willan AR**. Health technology assessment in the cost-disutility plane.

*Medical Decision Making*2008;**28**(2):172-181. See Citations **Willan AR**, Kowgier ME. Cost-effectiveness analysis of a multinational RCT with a binary measure of effectiveness and an interacting covariate.

*Health Economics*2008;**17**(7):777-791. See Citations- Eckermann S,
**Willan AR**. Time and EVSI wait for no patient.

*Value in Health*2008;**11**(3):522-526. See Citations - Murphy KE, Hannah ME,
**Willan AR***et al*. Multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm birth study (MACS): a randomised controlled trial.

*Lancet*2008;**372**(9656):2143-2151. See Citations - Hodnett ED, Sremler R,
**Willan AR**,*et al*. Effect on birth outcomes of a formalised approach to care in hospital labour assessment units: international, randomised controlled trial.

*British Medical Journal*2008;**337**: a1021. See Citations - Hossain A,
**Willan AR**. Approximate MLEs of the parameters of location-scale models under type II censoring.

*Statistics*2007;**41**(5):385-394. See Citations **Willan AR**. Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

*Clinical Trials*2007;**4**(3):279-285. See Citations- Pullenayegum EM,
**Willan AR**. Semi-parametric regression models for cost-effectiveness analysis: improving the efficiency of estimation from censored data.

*Statistics in Medicine*2007;**26**(17):3274-3299. See Citations - Eckermann S,
**Willan AR.**Expected value of information and decision making in HTA.

*Health Economics*2007;**16**(2):195-209. See Citations - Manca A,
**Willan AR.**Lost in translation: accounting for between country differences in the analysis of multinational cost effectiveness data.

*Pharmacoeconomics*2006;**24**(11):1101-1119. See Citations **Willan AR**, Briggs AH.

*The Statistical Analysis of Cost-effectiveness Data*. Chichester UK: Wiley 2006. See Citations**Willan AR**. Statistical analysis of cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

*Expert Rev. Phamacoeconomics Outcomes Res*2006;**6**(3):337-346. See Citations**Willan AR**, Goeree, R, Pinto EM, McBurney C, Blackhouse G. Economic evaluation of rivastigmine in patients with parkinson’s disease dementia.

*Pharmacoeconomics*2006;**24**(1):93-106. See Citations- Pinto EM,
**Willan AR**, O’Brien BJ. Cost-effectiveness analysis for multinational clinical trials.

*Statistics in Medicine*2005;**24**(13):1965-1982. See Citations **Willan AR**, Pinto EM. The expected value of information and optimal clinical trial design.

*Statistics in Medicine*2005;**24**(12):1791-1806. (Correction:*Statistics in Medicine*2006;**25**:720.) See Citations**Willan AR**, Pinto EM, O’Brien BJ, Kaul P, Goeree R, Lynd L, Armstrong PW. Country specific cost comparisons from multinational clinical trials using empirical Bayesian shrinkage estimation: the Canadian ASSENT-3 economic analysis.

*Health Economics*2005;**14**(4):327-338. See Citations**Willan AR**, Lin DY, Manca A. Regression methods for cost-effectiveness analysis with censored data.

*Statistics in Medicine*2005;**24**(1):131-145. See Citations**Willan AR**, Incremental net benefit in the analysis of economic data from clinical trials with application to the CADET-Hp Trial.

*European Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology*2004;**16**(6):543-549. See Citations**Willan AR**, Briggs AH, Hoch JS. Regression methods for covariate adjustment and subgroup analysis for non-censored cost-effectiveness data.

*Health Economics*2004;**13**(5):461-475. See Citations- Sears MR, Greene JM,
**Willan AR**,*et al*. A Longitudinal, Population-Based, Cohort Study of Childhood Asthma Followed to Adulthood.

*New England Journal of Medicine*2003;**349**(15):1414-1422. See Citations **Willan AR**, Chen EB, Cook RJ, Lin DY. Incremental net benefit in randomized clinical trials with qualify-adjusted survival.

*Statistics in Medicine*2003;**22**(3):353-362. See Citations**Willan AR**, Lin DY, Cook RJ, Chen EB. Using inverse-weighting in cost-effectiveness analysis with censored data.

*Statistical Methods in Medical Research*2002;**11**(6):539-551. See Citations- Hoch JS, Briggs AH,
**Willan AR**. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

*Health Economics*2002;**11**(5):415-430. See Citations - O'Brien BJ, Gertsen K,
**Willan AR**, Faulkner L. Is there a kink in consumers' threshold value for cost-effectiveness in health care.

*Health Economics*2002;**11**(2):175-180. See Citations - Sears MR, Greene JM,
**Willan AR**, et al. The long-term relationship between breast-feeding and development of atopy and asthma in children and young adults: a longitudinal study.

*Lancet*2002;**360**(9337):901-907. See Citations **Willan AR**. On the probability of cost-effectiveness using data from randomized clinical trials.

*BMC Medical Research Methodology*2001;**1**:8. See Citations**Willan AR**, O'Brien BJ, Leyva RA. Cost-effectiveness analysis when the WTA is greater than the WTP.

*Statistics in Medicine*2001;**20**(21):3251-3259. See Citations**Willan AR**, O'Brien BJ. Cost prediction models for the comparison of two groups.

*Health Economics*2001;**10**(4):363-366. See Citations**Willan AR**, Analysis, sample size and power for estimating incremental net health benefit from clinical trial data.

*Control Clinical Trials*2001;**22**(3):228-237. See Citations**Willan AR**, Lin DY. Incremental net benefit in randomized clinical trials.

*Statistics in Medicine*2001;**20**(11):1563-1574. See Citations- Feldman B, Wang E,
**Willan AR**, Szalai JP. The randomized placebo-phase design for clinical trials.

*Journal of Clinical Epidemiology*2001;**54**(6):550-557. See Citations - Hannah ME, Hannah WJ, Hewson SH, Hodnett ED, Saigal S,
**Willan AR**. Term Breech Trial: a multicentre international randomised controlled trial of planned caesarean section and planned vaginal birth for breech presentation at term.

*Lancet*2000;**356**(9239):1375-1383. See Citations **Willan AR**, O'Brien BJ. Sample size and power issues in estimating incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from clinical trials data.

*Health Economics*1999;**8**(3):203-211. See Citations**Willan AR**, O'Brien BJ, Cook DJ. Benefit-risk ratios in the assessment of the clinical evidence of a new therapy.

*Control Clinical Trials*1997;**18**(2):121-130. See Citations- Cook RJ,
**Willan AR**. Design considerations in crossover trials with a single interim analysis and serial patient entry.

*Biometrics*1996;**52**(2):732-739. See Citations **Willan AR**, O'Brien BJ. Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios: An application of Fieller's Theorem.

*Health Economics*1996;**5**(4):297-305. Addendum 1999;**8**:599. See Citations**Willan AR**, Cruess AF, Ballantyne M. Argon green vs krypton red laser photocoagulation of extrafoveal choroidal Neovascular Lesions: Three-year results in age-related macular generation.

*Canadian Journal Ophthalmology*1996;**31**(1):11-17. See Citations**Willan AR**. Power function arguments in support of an alternative approach for analyzing management trials.

*Control Clinical Trials*1994;**15**(3):211-219. See Citations**Willan AR**, Ross W, MacKenzie T. A comparison of in-patient classification systems: A problem on non-nested regressions.

*Statistics in Medicine*1992;**11**(10):1321-1331. See Citations**Willan AR**. Using the maximum test statistic in the two-period crossover clinical trial.

*Biometrics*1988;**44**(1):211-218. See Citations- Burnett R,
**Willan AR**. Linear rank tests for randomized block designs.

*Communications in Statistics A*1988;**17**(8):2455-2470. See Citations **Willan AR**, Pater J. Using baseline measurements in the two-period crossover clinical trial.

*Control Clin Trials*1986;**7**(4):282-289. See Citations**Willan AR**, Pater J. Carryover and the two-period crossover clinical trial.

*Biometrics*1986;**42**(3):593-599. See Citations**Willan AR**, Pater J. Hypothesis testing and sample size for bivariate binomial response in the comparison of two groups.

*Journal of Chronic Diseases*1985;**38**(7):603-608. See Citations**Willan AR**. Relative efficiency in survival analysis.

*Journal of Chronic Diseases*1983;**36**(2):183-192. See Citations**Willan AR**, Watts D. Meaningful multicollinearity measures.

*Technometrics*1978;**20**(4, Part 1):407-412. See Citations

Last edited: 2009 January 21